How ideas are evaluated
Our goal is to solve the world's biggest problems.
One goal, used for three decisions: whether a bill does more good than harm, which of two versions is better, and what to work on in the first place.
The coalition has one explicit goal. Every decision, which bills to push, which ideas to advance, which proposals to reject, runs through it.
The poster below is the clearest way we know to apply that goal in practice. Members should use it when deciding whether to support, amend, or oppose a bill. Submitters should use it before sending anything: if a proposal cannot pass this test, it will not pass our review either.
The framework
A framework for congressional decision-making
Guiding Philosophy
For the United States Congress
Our goal is to solve the world's biggest problems.
I. What are the most important problems?
10x If a problem affects 10x more people, it matters 10x more.
10x If a problem causes 10x more harm, it matters 10x more.
10x If a problem is 10x more likely, it matters 10x more.
10x If a problem is 10x easier to solve, it matters 10x more.
Priority formula
Scale x Severity x Probability x Tractability
The higher the score, the more important the work, regardless of party.
II. Some of the biggest
Catastrophic AI risk
20 to 40% chance of a catastrophe on the scale of nuclear war by 2027 to 2033
Surveyed experts put the odds in that range. The impact falls on everyone, which is what makes it a priority.
Factory farming
120 to 210B animals alive in factory farms at any moment
The scale of the population affected is the argument. No other policy area touches that many sentient lives.
Global poverty
4.3 billion people living on less than $10 a day (PPP)
More than half the world. The tools to change it exist and are cheap relative to the outcome.
III. Whether to support a bill
Do it
If the bill helps solve a major problem and does not make anyone's life worse, support it. If the downside is smaller than the benefit, support it. If an industry would lose money, offset the loss in the bill.
When you are unsure
Compare the size of the benefit with the size of the harm, weighted by how many people or animals each affects. Ask whether the main benefit can be kept while the cost is removed.
Do not do it
If the bill only makes lives worse, reject it. If it blocks something useful and produces nothing, reject it. If you would not want it applied to you, reject it.
The shared goal
Our goal is to solve the world's biggest problems.
The poster is how we apply it. Use it when deciding whether to support or oppose a bill, and when deciding which problems deserve attention first.
A shared framework lets a group move quickly, settle disagreements with reasons instead of status, and keep working on the things that matter.
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